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Supply chain

What to hold against demand

Sena counts what consumers across a market purchased and records what each outlet held on the day, from real-world data.

  • 190+ countries
  • 5M+ consumer network
  • 250+ integrations
The problem

Where a plan bends

Demand planning decides what to hold, make, and replenish for the period ahead. Three patterns bend it before the first review.

01

One forecast, one market total

THE MARKET TOTAL, FLAT COVER SET AGAINST AN AVERAGE THE MIX MOVES UNDERNEATH CLIMBING FALLING EACH FORMAT ON ITS OWN LINE

One demand figure covers a market whose formats, outlet types, and price tiers pull opposite ways. The plan holds against an average, and cover lands heavily on the segment falling and light on the one climbing.

  • A growing format runs short while the market total holds.
  • The mix moves, and the headline figure sits still.
02

The plan answers a constraint

SHIPMENT HISTORY SOLD OUT NEXT PERIOD'S CEILING CATEGORY PURCHASE MISSED SERVED AND MISSED, COUNTED APART

Where the input series records shipments, the plan optimizes supply against a figure supply already shaped. Every stockout and listing gap in the history carries forward as evidence that buyers wanted less.

  • A sell-out week sets next period's ceiling.
  • The gap between wanted and available compounds.
03

Consensus replaces measurement

COMMERCIAL PLANNING FINANCE THE FIGURE AGREED ITS EVIDENCE IS SENIORITY RECORDED PURCHASE COMMERCIAL PLANNING FINANCE ONE RECORD THREE TEAMS CAN OPEN

The cycle ends in a meeting where commercial, planning, and finance reconcile three views. The number agreed is the number defensible in the room, and its evidence is seniority.

  • The strongest argument wins the period.
  • A miss gets reviewed against the previous revision.
What Sena does for planning

Demand read at the buyer

Sena is the decision AI with access to real-world data. It counts what consumers across a market purchased and records what each outlet held on the day, so the demand side of a plan rests on the category itself.

The series

Category purchase counted directly

Sena counts purchases across every player in the category, so the series a plan responds to describes the market.

  • Purchases counted across every player, market by market.
  • Demand served and demand missed, counted separately.
The outlet

Availability held apart

Contributors record what each outlet held and which lines had gone, so a flat week caused by an empty slot reads on its own terms.

  • Presence per outlet, line, and day.
  • A dated photograph under each availability reading.
The segments

Segments carrying their own rate

Sena reports movement per format, outlet type, and price tier, so the parts of a market keep their directions inside the plan.

  • Each segment with its own series and its own rate.
  • A mix shift surfacing while the market total holds.
The method

Building the demand plan

A plan holds up on two things: whether the demand series behind it measures the category or one company's shipments, and whether the parts of the market were planned apart before they were added together.

DEMAND FORECASTING · THE INPUT WHAT WILL THE MARKET BUY? A PROJECTION PER SEGMENT AND PERIOD DEMAND PLANNING · THE RESPONSE WHAT SHOULD BE HELD AGAINST THAT? STOCK · CAPACITY · REPLENISHMENT A FORECAST FROM SHIPMENTS OPTIMIZES AGAINST SUPPLY
01

Planning against forecasting

Demand planning turns a view of future demand into the stock, capacity, and replenishment a company commits for the period ahead. It is the response to half of the problem. The projection arrives from forecasting, and the plan decides what to hold against it, at what level, in which market, and by when.

Forecasting is the input, and planning is the response. A planning process running on a forecast built from shipment history optimizes supply against a figure that supply already shaped.

Planning against forecasting

The two terms travel together and answer opposite halves of one problem.

The questionWhat it produces
Demand forecastingWhat will the market buy?A projection of category demand, per segment and period.
Demand planningWhat should be held against that?Stock, capacity, and replenishment decisions.

Four inputs behind the plan

Four inputs, collected per market, carry the demand side.

WHAT WAS PAID DATED · THE WHOLE MARKET

Receipts

Category purchases and their dates, so the plan answers the demand of the whole market.

MARKET DATE WANTING VS AVAILABLE

Store captures

What each outlet held that day, which tells wanting apart from availability.

PRICEPACKFACING PLACE AND TIME ATTACHED

Geo-verified photos

The outlet exactly as the capture found it, with place and time attached.

WOULD PAY THE POINT WHERE HISTORY ENDS

Stated preference

What buyers state they will buy next, which reaches the stretch of the period history leaves open.

BOARD DECKSPLANNING MODELSPOINT OF SALEEXPORTS 250+ OWN NUMBERS BESIDE THE READ
A separate row

The team’s own numbers form a separate row. Shipment history, open orders, and planning models arrive over 250+ integrations, so own volume reads against the category around it.

What a plan must resolve

Four questions decide whether a plan holds through the period.

01

What the series measures

CATEGORY PURCHASE DEMAND SHIPMENTS SUPPLY MEETING DEMAND

Category purchase describes demand. Shipments describe supply meeting demand.

02

At what level

MARKET · CORRECT FORMAT AFORMAT BFORMAT C ✕✕✕ REPLENISHMENT RUNS HERE

A figure accurate at the market level can be wrong at every format inside it, and replenishment runs against formats.

03

Whether availability is separable

A FLAT WEEK EMPTY OUTLET ASKS FOR SUPPLY A FLAT WEEK SOFT WANTING SOMETHING ELSE

A flat week from an empty outlet asks for supply. A flat week of soft wanting asks for something else.

04

What settles a disagreement

VIEW ONEVIEW TWOVIEW THREE ONE ANSWER RECORDED PURCHASE ON THE TABLE

A consensus meeting with recorded purchase on the table reaches a different answer from one with three internal views.

The demand planning cycle

Five steps cover the cycle as most teams run it, monthly or weekly.

01

Gather

Assemble history, the current projection, open orders, and anything commercial knows about the period.

02

Statistical pass

Fit trend and seasonality, and produce a baseline per market and per line.

03

Enrich

Layer promotions, listings, launches, and known events onto the baseline.

04

Consensus

Reconcile commercial, planning, and finance into one committed figure.

05

Commit and review

Breaks here

Release the plan, then check the miss against what buyers went on to purchase.

AGAINST ITS OWN LAST REVISION · CONSISTENCY THE RECORDED PURCHASE AGAINST WHAT BUYERS BOUGHT · ACCURACY

Step 5 is where most cycles quietly break. Both return paths look like a review. Only one of them changes the number.

The inner loop

A plan checked against its own previous revision improves its internal consistency.

Consistency
The outer loop

A plan checked against the recorded purchase improves its accuracy.

Accuracy
Direct from real consumers

Shared under explicit consent

Real people share what they buy and prefer, under explicit consent. Sena captures it directly at the source, so every figure traces back to where it came from whenever a number comes under question.

Real people, real consent Zero-party data straight from the source Traceable and verifiable
Sena for demand planning

Ask Sena the response

Consented purchase builds the series, and every segment arrives with the transactions that set its direction.

4 sources · captures dated this cycle · Open the captures ↗ · figures in this exchange are illustrative
ApartNot blended

Each segment planned apart

Sena reports formats, outlet types, and tiers separately, so cover follows the direction each one is moving.

Its own rate
VisibleNot absorbed

An empty week stays visible

Sena records what the outlet held, so an empty week enters the plan as an availability problem.

Cause named
OpensTo the weeks

Open the plan to purchase

Any figure in the demand series opens to the weeks of recorded purchase that produced it.

Traceable
How Sena reaches the answer

What a plan rests on

Most demand series measure supply meeting demand

A plan carries weight only as far as the demand series underneath it. Sena builds every figure from real-world signals captured when the question needs it, from consumers purchasing across the category through to the dated capture a consensus meeting is checked against.

Consumer activity

Counts category purchases and their dates, taking in every player selling into that market, so the series describes the market itself.

Computer vision

Reads what each outlet held off images captured in real outlets, which separates an availability gap from a fall in wanting.

Zero-party data

Signal arrives from the consumer network under explicit consent. What buyers plan to purchase next comes from the buyers themselves.

Connect the team's systems

Shipment history, open orders, and planning models join over 250+ integrations, so own volume reads against the category around it.

Trace every answer

Each point in the series carries its market and its capture date, so a committed figure reopens on what produced it.

From files to databases

Historic plans, revisions, and movement exports load in, so every period the team has committed sits together.

Who owns it

Who owns the plan

Four teams meet at the same committed figure, and each one needs a different cut of it before they can act.

Demand planning

The committed figure. Needs a series built on category purchase, per segment.

Supply and production

The capacity. Needs a level matching what production is built around.

Commercial and account teams

The market view. Needs evidence for the number brought to consensus.

Planning and finance

The reconciliation. Needs a miss opened to what buyers purchased.

By industry

Planning across every industry

The same demand series, read against whatever each industry treats as a segment.

01

CPG and retail

Category purchase by format and price tier, with outlet availability alongside.

02

Consumer tech

Purchase by specification and price band, with the replacement cycle buyers state.

03

Pharmacy and health

Pack size movement at the counter, and the weeks a line kept running absent.

04

Telecom

Handset and tariff movement between operators, period over period.

The mechanism

Consumer to plan, three steps

One mechanism, applied per market and per category. Each step is documented, which is what makes a committed figure defensible.

Step 01 · Capture

Capture

Real contributors share what they buy and pay under explicit consent and record what each outlet held in the markets named.

  • Explicit consent on every capture
  • Purchase and outlet record together
Step 02 · Track

Track

Sena builds a dated series of category purchases per segment, with availability recorded alongside it.

  • Dated to the week it happened
  • Availability on its own line
Step 03 · Plan

Plan

Each format, outlet type, and tier carries its own direction into the cycle, with the captures attached.

  • Segments planned apart
  • Every figure opens to its captures
What changes

Measured and planned

Most planning cycles respond to the one demand series a company holds in full, which is its own shipment history. Sena measures the category that history sits inside.

Capability areaTypical setupSena
The input seriesOwn shipments and orders.Category purchases counted across the whole market, player by player.
Demand against availabilityCombined in one figure.Held apart, with the outlet record dated to the day.
Planning levelMarket total, split downward by rules.Each format, outlet type, and tier carrying its own series.
What settles consensusThree internal views and a meeting.Recorded purchase on the table, opened to the receipts.
New buyersInferred from a lift in the total.Counted, so new-buyer growth and frequency growth stay apart.
Reviewing a missChecked against the previous revision.Opened to what buyers purchased in those weeks.
What comes backA committed figure for the period.A demand series per segment, with the dates and records behind it.
Use cases

Where the plan lands

Three situations where a market-built series changes the committed figure.

01 ApartThen added

Plan each format apart

Carry every format and price tier forward in its own direction, so the cover follows the segment it serves.

See purchase driver analysis →
02 One recordThree teams

Settle a consensus meeting

Bring the recorded purchase to the reconciliation so the committed figure rests on evidence three teams can open.

See promotion ROI analysis →
03 AgainstPurchase

Review a miss honestly

Open the period to what buyers purchased in it, so the next cycle inherits a correction worth having.

See brand perception tracking →
See it in one market

Bring one category to plan

The walkthrough builds a dated demand series for one category in one market, splits it by format and outlet type, and opens the purchases behind any point in the series while the team watches.

What a walkthrough covers

  1. 01A series built from category purchase across the whole market
  2. 02The outlet record across the period, photographs attached
  3. 03Every format and tier moving on its own line
  4. 04The dated capture behind any demand line worth tracing

Talk to the Rwazi team

Name the category and the markets it sells in, and we will build the demand series behind it.

FAQ

Demand planning questions

01 What is demand planning?
Demand planning converts an expected-demand figure into committed stock, capacity, and replenishment for the period ahead. It runs on a cycle, usually monthly or weekly, and ends in a committed figure per market and per line. The quality of the plan follows the quality of the demand series it responds to.
02 What is the difference between demand forecasting and demand planning?
Demand forecasting projects what a market will buy. Demand planning decides what to hold against that projection: stock, capacity, and replenishment. Forecasting is the input, and planning is the response. A planning process running on a forecast built from shipment history optimizes supply against a figure that supply already shaped.
03 What does a demand planner do?
A demand planner runs the cycle that turns a projection into a commitment. That means assembling history and the current projection, producing a statistical baseline, layering promotions and listings onto it, reconciling commercial, planning, and finance into one figure, and reviewing the miss once the period closes. The last step is the one that improves the next cycle.
04 What are the steps in the demand planning process?
Five. Gather history, the projection, and open orders. Run a statistical pass for trend and seasonality. Enrich the baseline with promotions, listings, and known events. Reconcile the views into a consensus figure. Commit, then review the miss against what buyers went on to purchase, which is where accuracy comes from.
05 What is the difference between demand planning and supply planning?
Demand planning decides what a company should hold against expected demand. Supply planning decides how to produce and move it: capacity, sourcing, scheduling, and lead times. Demand planning names the target, and supply planning meets it. The two run in the same cycle and answer to different constraints.
06 What data is used for demand planning?
History, the current projection, open orders, promotional calendars, and whatever commercial knows about the period. Most of it is internal, which is the limitation: shipment history records supply meeting demand. Category purchase counted across every player describes the market itself, and outlet captures keep an availability gap separable from soft wanting.
07 How does consumer purchase data improve a demand plan?
It changes what the plan responds to. A series built from category purchase describes the market, where shipment history describes one company's supply meeting demand. Recording what each outlet held on the same day keeps a flat week caused by an empty slot apart from a flat week of soft wanting, so cover follows the right cause.
08 Why do demand plans fail?
Two causes dominate. The input series measures supply meeting demand, so a stockout or a listing gap arrives in the next cycle looking like weaker appetite. And aggregation: formats and outlet types moving in opposite directions cancel inside one market total, so coverage lands heavily on the falling segment and lightly on the climbing one.
09 What data does Sena use for demand planning?
Consumer-recorded purchases across every player in the category, dated to the week they happened, contributed under explicit consent from a 5M+ network across 190+ countries. Alongside it, store captures hold what each outlet had that day, so availability and wanting remain separable. Shipment history, open orders, and planning models connect through 250+ integrations for comparison.