Sena weights scenario planning on what consumers in each market already bought. Every weight carries the market, the date, and the capture behind it.
A scenario set exists to make an uncertain future arguable. Three tendencies leave it arguing with itself, and each survives the workshop that produced it.
Each branch carries a likelihood assigned in a room. The number looks quantitative and rests on the seniority of whoever spoke last.
Branches drawn at the start of a planning cycle carry through to the decision. The set carries through on the weights it started with.
Three branches get a third each because dividing evenly looks neutral. Even division is itself a claim, and usually a wrong one.
Sena is the decision AI with access to real-world data. It scores every branch of the plan on consumer activity in the markets that branch depends on, so a weight arrives with the purchases behind it.
Sena reads the markets and categories a branch rests on, then reports what buyers there did over the period.
Sena states the assumption each branch depends on, then tests it against recorded purchase in the markets it names.
Ask again next cycle, and Sena re-reads the same branches, so a weight moves when the market does.
A scenario set holds up on two things: whether each branch names a testable assumption and whether the weights came from evidence.
Sena weights each branch from four collected inputs, applied to the markets that branch depends on.
What buyers in those markets paid across the period a branch assumes will change.
What the category charged and stocked there, so a supply-side branch has evidence.
Pack, price, and facing read off the image, dated inside the branch window.
What a buyer would move to, which is the branch a demand shift depends on.
The team’s own numbers form a separate row. Board decks, planning models, point of sale, and exports connect through 250+ integrations, so a branch reads against what the business currently delivers.
The scenario planning process runs in four steps, and the third is where most sets weaken.
The two or three variables the plan is most exposed to, stated in terms a market can measure.
Each one is a coherent combination of those variables, written so a reader can tell which world they are in.
Sena scores this from recorded purchase in the markets the branch depends on. A workshop-assigned likelihood is the step this replaces.
The observation that would promote or retire a branch, stated before the cycle runs.
Scenario planning models differ in how the branches get built and in what the weights mean.
Start from two axes of uncertainty and take the four quadrants as branches.
Build branches from observed movement, so the set follows the market.
Start from a desired end state and work back to what would produce it.
Sena supplies the evidence layer under all three. The branches remain a judgement the team makes, and the weights become a measurement.
Scenario analysis and scenario planning describe overlapping work with a difference of scope.
Scenario analysis moves one variable across a range, usually inside a financial model, and returns a spread of outcomes.
Scenario planning builds whole coherent futures and asks which one the organization should prepare for.
A common set runs three branches: the category premiumises, it commoditises, or it fragments across formats. Sena weighs each on what buyers did.
Premiumization shows as spend per buyer rising while buyer numbers hold.
Commoditization shows as buyer numbers rising while spend per buyer falls.
Fragmentation shows as share moving toward formats outside the current range.
Real people share what they buy and prefer, under explicit consent. Sena captures it directly at the source, so every figure traces back to where it came from whenever a number comes under question.
Sena answers scenario questions from consumer data collected under explicit consent, then names the branch the market is moving toward.
Sena weights every branch per market, then reports them together, strong in the first market and weak in the second.
Sena places buyer numbers beside spend per buyer for the same period, since most category branches separate on exactly that pair.
Every weight opens to the outlet, the market, and the date. Any figure in a board deck opens to the purchases underneath it.
One category set, read three ways, so a plan sees which future the market currently supports and which sits under its trigger.
| Markets read | 6 |
|---|---|
| Buyer numbers, period on period | +9% |
| Spend per buyer, period on period | −6% |
| Share moving outside the range | 3% |
| Retirement trigger | 8% |
Sena builds every figure on this page from real-world signals captured when the question needs it, from what buyers in the exposed markets did, through to the dated capture a team opens when a weight gets challenged in the room.
Counts what buyers in each exposed market bought and paid across the period, so a branch rests on movement that already happened.
Reads price, pack, and facing off images captured in real stores, dated inside the window a branch describes.
Signal arrives from the consumer network under explicit consent. Every weight rests on people who agreed to share what they bought.
Brings board decks, planning models, point of sale, and exports in through 250+ integrations, so a branch reads against current performance.
Each weight carries the market, the date, and the capture forward, so a challenged branch opens to the movement behind it.
Sena draws scattered planning files, exports, and spreadsheets into one place, so a scenario set reaches every cycle the team has filed.
Four teams read the same scenario set, and each one needs a different cut of it before they can act.
The scenario set. Needs each branch weighted on evidence before the board reviews it.
The capital under each branch. Needs the trigger that would retire one, stated early.
The commitment. Needs to know which branch the market is currently moving toward.
The exposure. Needs the markets carrying the most movement named separately.
The same weighting, read in whatever movement each category records.
Whether the category is premiumising or commoditising, read off the basket and the price.
Which products households move toward as rates and incomes shift.
Whether subscribers trade up, trade down, or leave, per market.
Whether stated willingness to pay tracks the price buyers currently accept.
One mechanism, applied per market and per category. Each step is documented, which is what keeps the weight defensible.
Real contributors share what they buy and pay under explicit consent, in the markets named.
Sena reads what buyers did in the markets each branch depends on, over the period the branch describes.
Each branch reports with its score, its supporting movement, and the trigger that would retire it.
Most scenario sets carry weights assigned in a workshop. Sena carries weights read off what buyers did.
| Capability area | Typical setup | Sena |
|---|---|---|
| Where a weight comes from | A likelihood assigned by the room, defended by seniority. | Recorded purchase in the markets each branch depends on. |
| The assumption under a branch | Restated in an appendix and left unchecked. | Written out and tested against what those buyers did. |
| Refresh | Set at the workshop and carried through the cycle. | Re-read whenever the question runs again, so a weight moves when the market moves. |
| Market granularity | One weight per branch, applied across the region. | Each branch weighted per market, with divergence named. |
| Retiring a branch | Left on the deck until someone argues it away. | A trigger stated in advance and reported when the market passes it. |
| Auditing a weight | A methodology annex, with the records held by the provider. | Any weight opens to the outlet, the market, and the date. |
| What comes back | A set of futures with percentages attached. | The branch the market is moving toward, and what would change it. |
Three situations where a market-level weighting changes the decision on the table.
Score each branch on what buyers in the exposed markets did, so the set opens with evidence.
Check whether a branch passed its stated trigger, so the deck carries futures the market still supports.
Read spend per buyer beside buyer numbers to see whether a premium branch or a value branch holds in each market.
A weighted branch names the future to prepare for. The four decisions below are what a strategy team asks around it.
Every strategy decision Sena answers, in one place
The movement under a branch
Counts what buyers in the category did, the record every weight reads from.
Explore market intelligence 02What each branch is worth
Sizes the category under each future, so a weight arrives with a value beside it.
Explore total addressable market 03Where the capital follows
Places the next investment against the branch the market currently supports.
Explore portfolio strategy 04Who moves with each branch
Places every player on price and presence, so a branch reads against what rivals do inside it.
Explore competitive landscape analysisThe walkthrough weights the branches named across three markets, states the trigger for each, and opens the purchases behind every score while the team watches.
Tell us the branches and the markets, and we will weight each one on purchase.